A review of the role of spatial resolution in energy systems modelling:Lessons learned and applicability to the North Sea region

The importance of spatial resolution for energy modelling has increased in the last years. Incorporating more spatial resolution in energy models presents wide benefits, but it is not straightforward, as it might compromise their computational performance. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of spatial resolution in energy models, including benefits, challenges and future research avenues. The paper is divided in four parts: first, it reviews and analyses the applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for energy modelling in the literature. GIS analyses are found to be relevant to analyse how meteorology affects renewable production, to assess infrastructure needs, design and routing, and to analyse resource allocation, among others. Second, it analyses a selection of large scale energy modelling tools, in terms of how they can include spatial data, which resolution they have and to what extent this resolution can be modified. Out of the 34 energy models reviewed, 16 permit to include regional coverage, while 13 of them permit to include a tailor-made spatial resolution, showing that current available modelling tools permit regional analysis in large scale frameworks. The third part presents a collection of practices used in the literature to include spatial resolution in energy models, ranging from aggregated methods where the spatial granularity is non-existent to sophisticated clustering methods. Out of the spatial data clustering methods available in the literature, k-means and max-p have been successfully used in energy related applications showing promising results. K-means permits to cluster large amounts of spatial data at a low computational cost, while max-p ensures contiguity and homogeneity in the resulting clusters. The fourth part aims to apply the findings and lessons learned throughout the paper to the North Sea region. This region combines large amounts of planned deployment of variable renewable energy sources with multiple spatial claims and geographical constraints, and therefore it is ideal as a case study. We propose a complete modelling framework for the region in order to fill two knowledge gaps identified in the literature: the lack of offshore integrated system modelling, and the lack of spatial analysis while defining the offshore regions of the modelling framework

Carbon capture and biomass in industry: A techno-economic analysis and comparison of negative emission options

Meeting the Paris Agreement will most likely require the combination of CO2 capture and biomass in the industrial sector, resulting in net negative emissions. CO2 capture within the industry has been extensively investigated. However, biomass options have been poorly explored, with literature alluding to technical and economic barriers. In addition, a lack of consistency among studies makes comparing the performance of CO2 capture and/or biomass use between studies and sectors difficult. These inconsistencies include differences in methodology, system boundaries, level of integration, costs, greenhouse gas intensity of feedstock and energy carriers, and capital cost estimations. Therefore, an integrated evaluation of the techno-economic performance regarding CO2 capture and biomass use was performed for five energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors. Harmonization results indicate that CO2 mitigation potentials vary for each sub-sector, resulting in reductions of 1.4–2.7 t CO2/t steel (77%–149%), 0.7 t CO2/t cement (92%), 0.2 t CO2/t crude oil (68%), 1.9 t CO2/t pulp (1663%–2548%), and 34.9 t CO2/t H2 (313%). Negative emissions can be reached in the steel, paper and H2 sectors. Novel bio-based production routes might enable net negative emissions in the cement and (petro)chemical sectors as well. All the above-mentioned potentials can be reached for 100 €/t CO2 or less. Implementing mitigation options could reduce industrial CO2 emissions by 10 Gt CO2/y by 2050, easily meeting the targets of the 2 °C scenario by the International Energy Agency (1.8 Gt CO2/y reduction) for the industrial sector and even the Beyond 2 °C scenario (4.2 Gt CO2/y reduction)

Biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol production in Brazil

Growing domestic and international ethanol demand is expected to result in increased sugarcane cultivation in Brazil. Sugarcane expansion currently results in land-use changes mainly in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, two severely threatened biodiversity hotspots. This study quantifies potential biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol demand in Brazil in a spatially explicit manner. We project changes in potential total, threatened, endemic, and range-restricted mammals' species richness up to 2030. Decreased potential species richness due to increased ethanol demand in 2030 was projected for about 19,000 km2 in the Cerrado, 17,000 km2 in the Atlantic Forest, and 7000 km2 in the Pantanal. In the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, the biodiversity impacts of sugarcane expansion were mainly due to direct land-use change; in the Pantanal, they were largely due to indirect land-use change. The biodiversity impact of increased ethanol demand was projected to be smaller than the impact of other drivers of land-use change. This study provides a first indication of biodiversity impacts related to increased ethanol production in Brazil, which is useful for policy makers and ethanol producers aiming to mitigate impacts. Future research should assess the impact of potential mitigation options, such as nature protection, agroforestry, or agricultural intensification

Biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol production in Brazil

Growing domestic and international ethanol demand is expected to result in increased sugarcane cultivation in Brazil. Sugarcane expansion currently results in land-use changes mainly in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, two severely threatened biodiversity hotspots. This study quantifies potential biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol demand in Brazil in a spatially explicit manner. We project changes in potential total, threatened, endemic, and range-restricted mammals' species richness up to 2030. Decreased potential species richness due to increased ethanol demand in 2030 was projected for about 19,000 km2 in the Cerrado, 17,000 km2 in the Atlantic Forest, and 7000 km2 in the Pantanal. In the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, the biodiversity impacts of sugarcane expansion were mainly due to direct land-use change; in the Pantanal, they were largely due to indirect land-use change. The biodiversity impact of increased ethanol demand was projected to be smaller than the impact of other drivers of land-use change. This study provides a first indication of biodiversity impacts related to increased ethanol production in Brazil, which is useful for policy makers and ethanol producers aiming to mitigate impacts. Future research should assess the impact of potential mitigation options, such as nature protection, agroforestry, or agricultural intensification

Carbon balance and economic performance of pine plantations for bioenergy production in the Southeastern United States

Management strategies for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in the Southeastern USA can be adapted to fulfill both the demand for wood products and for bioenergy. This study quantifies the impact of plantation management choices on the cumulative carbon balance and the net present value of loblolly pine plantations at the stand level, as well as the wood supply cost for bioenergy production for these different management strategies. The strategies assessed (conventional, additional thinning and short rotation) are characterised by planting density, thinning age and rotation period, each with and without collection and utilization of slash residues for bioenergy. The total wood supply costs for bioenergy include the cultivation, harvesting and transport costs for small diameter trees and slash. The results show that the carbon balance after 100 years is 205 (247), 214 (268) and 149 (195) Mg ha−1 for the conventional, additional thinning, and short rotation loblolly pine plantation management strategies (within parentheses: same strategies with slash utilization). The conventional strategy has the lowest wood supply costs for bioenergy, 47 (46) $Mg−1 pulpwood, followed by the additional thinning strategy, 50 (49)$ Mg−1 pulpwood, and 54 (52) $ Mg−1 pulpwood for the short rotation management strategy. In conclusion, switching from the current conventional strategy without the utilization of slash for bioenergy to an additional thinning strategy with the use of slash increases the overall carbon accumulation by about 31%, at marginally higher wood supply cost. Adapting plantation management strategies can have a positive effect on the economic performance and on the carbon balance of loblolly pine plantations. Integration of wood supply for bioenergy and traditional forestry sectors can lead to co-benefits in terms of cost reduction and carbon accumulation

Carbon balance and economic performance of pine plantations for bioenergy production in the Southeastern United States

Management strategies for loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantations in the Southeastern USA can be adapted to fulfill both the demand for wood products and for bioenergy. This study quantifies the impact of plantation management choices on the cumulative carbon balance and the net present value of loblolly pine plantations at the stand level, as well as the wood supply cost for bioenergy production for these different management strategies. The strategies assessed (conventional, additional thinning and short rotation) are characterised by planting density, thinning age and rotation period, each with and without collection and utilization of slash residues for bioenergy. The total wood supply costs for bioenergy include the cultivation, harvesting and transport costs for small diameter trees and slash. The results show that the carbon balance after 100 years is 205 (247), 214 (268) and 149 (195) Mg ha−1 for the conventional, additional thinning, and short rotation loblolly pine plantation management strategies (within parentheses: same strategies with slash utilization). The conventional strategy has the lowest wood supply costs for bioenergy, 47 (46) $Mg−1 pulpwood, followed by the additional thinning strategy, 50 (49)$ Mg−1 pulpwood, and 54 (52) $ Mg−1 pulpwood for the short rotation management strategy. In conclusion, switching from the current conventional strategy without the utilization of slash for bioenergy to an additional thinning strategy with the use of slash increases the overall carbon accumulation by about 31%, at marginally higher wood supply cost. Adapting plantation management strategies can have a positive effect on the economic performance and on the carbon balance of loblolly pine plantations. Integration of wood supply for bioenergy and traditional forestry sectors can lead to co-benefits in terms of cost reduction and carbon accumulation

Recent and projected impacts of land use and land cover changes on carbon stocks and biodiversity in East Kalimantan, Indonesia

Large-scale land use and land cover (LULC) changes can have strong impacts on natural ecosystems, such as losses of biodiversity and carbon. Future impacts, under one or multiple future scenarios, can be estimated with the use of LULC projections from land use change models. Our aim is to quantify LULC change impacts on carbon stocks and biodiversity in the West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. Hereto, we used LULC data from 1990 to 2009 and land use change model projections up to 2030 under four contrasting LULC change scenarios differing along two axes: land development (limited vs. unlimited) and zoning (restricted vs. unrestricted), explicitly considering the uncertainties in the land use change model. For the LULC change impact calculations, three quantitative indicators were evaluated: aboveground biomass (AGB) (for carbon stocks), closed-canopy forest patch size distribution and plant species richness (for biodiversity). Subsequently, we statistically assessed whether the motivation to opt for a specific scenario was conclusive given the uncertainty in the indicator values. We found that under the limited development scenarios the projected AGB decrease towards 2030 was insignificant, plant species richness was projected to decrease significantly by ∼3%, and closed-canopy forest patches mainly of 100–1000 ha were projected to become fragmented. The effect of zoning was insignificant under these scenarios. The difference between the limited and unlimited development scenarios was significant, with the projected impacts under the unlimited development scenarios being much higher: AGB was projected to decrease 4–30%, plant species richness 10–40%, and the closed-canopy forest was projected to completely loose its typical patch size distribution. The effect of zoning on these scenarios was positive and significant. These results suggest that the most sustainable pathway for East Kalimantan, given our indicators, would be to limit land development, mainly large-scale cash-crop cultivation. If land development cannot be limited, the implementation of restricted development zones is advised. The methodologic novelty of our approach is that we propagate uncertainties from a land use change model to the impact assessment and test the significance of differences between future scenarios, in other words we test if a potential policy instrument has a significant (positive) effect on the studied indicators and may thus be worth implementing

Impact of increased wood pellet demand on biodiversity in the south-eastern United States

Increasing wood pellet exports from the United States are projected to lead to changes in land use and timberland management, including a shift from natural timberland to pine plantations. These projected changes may impact biodiversity. This study aims to quantify potential biodiversity impacts of increased wood pellet demand in the south-eastern United States in a spatially explicit manner. We determined differences according to an index of potential species richness (for total, threatened and endemic species and four taxonomic groups) between scenarios of high and low demand for wood pellets, while taking into account potential developments in other wood markets and other land uses. Increased demand for wood pellets was projected to cause both positive and negative biodiversity impacts. Negative shifts in total potential species richness were projected for areas in Florida, coastal Virginia and North Carolina, and parts of the Gulf Coast. Positive shifts in total potential species richness were projected in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. In some locations, the direction of change differed per taxonomic group, highlighting the importance of analysing different taxonomic groups. Shifts in potential species richness due to increased wood pellet demand were considerably smaller compared to the changes due to other drivers, such as urbanization and increased timber demand. Biodiversity impacts due to wood pellet demand should therefore be considered in the context of other drivers of land-use change and biodiversity loss. Our results provide information that allows policymakers, industry and NGOs to focus on areas of concern and take appropriate mitigation measures to limit negative biodiversity impacts and promote positive impacts. The spatially explicit approach presented in this study can be applied to different regions and drivers of land-use change, to show how projected demand for an internationally traded commodity may lead to impacts on land use and biodiversity in the procurement region

Analyses of land cover change trajectories leading to tropical forest loss : Illustrated for the West Kutai and MahakamUlu Districts, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

In Indonesia, land cover change for agriculture and mining is threatening tropical forests, biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, land cover change is highly dynamic and complex and varies over time and space. In this study, we combined Landsat-based land cover (change) mapping, pixel-to-pixel cross tabulations and expert knowledge to analyze land cover change and forest loss in the West Kutai and Mahakam Ulu districts in East Kalimantan from 1990-2009. We found that about one-third of the study area changed in 1990-2009 and that the different types of land cover changes in the study area increased and involved more diverse and characteristic trajectories in 2000-2009, compared to 1990-2000. Degradation to more open forest types was dominant, and forest was mostly lost due to trajectories that involved deforestation to grasslands and shrubs (~17%), and to a lesser extent due to trajectories from forest to mining and agriculture (11%). Trajectories from forest to small-scale mixed cropland and smallholder rubber occurred more frequently than trajectories to large-scale oil palm or pulpwood plantations; however, the latter increased over time. About 11% of total land cover change involved multiple-step trajectories and thus "intermediate" land cover types. The combined trajectory analysis in this paper thus contributes to a more comprehensive analysis of land cover change and the drivers of forest loss, which is essential to improve future land cover projections and to support spatial planning